Monday, March 17, 2008

Why Things are Worse than You Thought

To see how much worse things are than you might have thought take a look at:
Maximilian Auffhammer and Richard T. Carson, "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information" (August 7, 2007). Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UCB. CUDARE Working Paper 971.
The upshot of their research is that the projected rate of growth of greenhouse gas output by China is 11.88% for 2000-2010 not the 2.58-4.82% projected by the IPCC.
Here is the abstract:
Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use.

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