Monday, August 4, 2008

India – more

Like China, India has an incredibly ambitious planned growth trajectory – something like 8% a year. In the case of China you need to add to that the expected urban move of 500 million people and the growth of cars from 50 to 250 million over the next 20 years to understand the challenge of developing a low carbon pathway. In the case of India you need to add two salient facts about its poor – only 40% of the country is electrified and the fuel of necessity is biomass. One development goal is to move to 100% electrification. One effect of increasing development will be a move away form very inefficient biomass (8-10%) that is used for cooking to the use of kerosene. Add the growth of transportation, and here too the challenge seems enormous – even if unlike China, India starts from a much lower level of CO2 output – 1.3 gigatons versus 6.0.

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